WASHINGTON โ€” Costly delays threatening the James Webb Space Telescopeโ€™s 2014 launch could limit the funding available for NASAโ€™s next big-ticket space telescopes and a host of less-expensive projects deemed high priorities in the National Research Councilโ€™s latest 10-year plan for space- and ground-based astronomy, senior NASA officials said.

Released Aug. 13, the Astro2010 decadal survey โ€” formally titled โ€œNew Worlds, New Horizons in Astronomy and Astrophysicsโ€ โ€” designated the Wide-Field Infrared Survey Telescope (WFIRST) as the top priority for large missions for the decade ahead. WFIRST would be developed by NASA in partnership with the U.S. Department of Energy and launch in 2020 at an estimated cost of $1.6 billion to study dark energy, hunt for Earth-like planets and advance scientific understanding of the nature and evolution of galaxies.

Although WFIRST would be equipped with a substantially smaller mirror than the James Webb Space Telescope (JWST), the proposed telescope would have a much wider field of view, enabling it to image millions of galaxies during its envisioned five- to 10-year mission. NASA expects to review and potentially incorporate the decadal surveyโ€™s recommendations โ€” including WFIRST and a call for increasing funding for small and medium Explorer-class missions โ€” into its 2012 budget proposal this fall.

However, while NASA says these and other  decadal priorities could complement programs borne out of previous decadal surveys, future funding depends on the outcome of several ongoing reviews of JWSTโ€™s cost and schedule.

โ€œMuch hinges on the JWST reviews currently under way,โ€ NASA spokesman J.D. Harrington said Aug. 17, adding that NASAโ€™s astrophysics division chief, Jon Morse, is awaiting the outcome of several ongoing reviews of the great observatoryโ€™s test program, schedule and cost before determining future funding for new decadal priorities. โ€œItโ€™s a multistep process, and until he has that input, he canโ€™t make decisions.โ€

Between now and its scheduled June 2014 launch, JWST is expected to consume more than a third of the $1.1 billion NASA spends annually on astrophysics. With 14 healthy space telescopes in orbit and several more in development, NASAโ€™s budget for starting new astrophysics missions is expected to remain tight until the $5 billion JWST โ€” NASAโ€™s most expensive and biggest space science mission by far โ€” clears the pad.

Morse said in July that scientists participating in the decadal survey were informed of potentially costly delays for JWST, and were asked to set new astronomy priorities accordingly.

โ€œThere arenโ€™t a lot of resources available until we get out into mid-decade and JWST is launched, and thatโ€™s the guidance we gave the decadal survey a year ago,โ€ Morse told a meeting of the NASA Advisory Councilโ€™s science committee here July 13, adding that the guidance he provided assumed the telescope would be delayed one year to mid-2015. Morse said he also asked the survey to consider less-dire budget scenarios should additional resources become available, but added, โ€œIโ€™m worried Iโ€™m not being conservative enough at this point.โ€

Stanford University professor Roger Blandford, chairman of the National Research Council decadal survey panel that produced the report, said the recommendations assume NASAโ€™s astrophysics budget will remain flat or decline slightly in the decade ahead. The decadal panel also took into consideration the strain that additional JWST delays would impose on the astrophysics budget, he said.

โ€œWe did not imagine that the existing program came for free,โ€ Blandford said.

At $1.6 billion, WFIRST is the big-ticket proposal for the decade ahead. But it is not nearly as big or as technologically ambitious as JWST or the International X-ray 

Observatory, a potentially $5 billion telescope the decadal survey recommends NASA pursue in partnership with the European and Japanese space agencies for launch sometime in the 2020s. Should NASAโ€™s projected share exceed $2 billion, however, the mission should be scaled back, the report says. For the decade ahead, meanwhile, NASAโ€™s investment would be limited to $200 million for technology development aimed at reducing the cost and risk of the mission.

Likewise, the Laser Interferometer Space Antenna (LISA), a $2.4 billion mission consisting of three formation-flying spacecraft, is recommended as a joint mission with the European Space Agency with the U.S. share topping $1.5 billion. But the missionโ€™s 2025 launch target would keep NASAโ€™s contribution around $850 million between 2012 and 2021, according to the report.

Recognizing how tight NASAโ€™s astrophysics budget likely will be through at least 2015, Blandford said the decadal survey committee deliberately chose WFIRST โ€” โ€œa more modest, lower risk, cheaper mission,โ€ in his words โ€” as the top priority for large-scale space projects for the decade ahead. NASAโ€™s second-highest priority, according to the report, should be spending a sustained $100 million a year on the Explorers Program to ensure a steady flow of the modestly priced astrophysics missions into orbit.

While previous decadal surveys have tended to grossly underestimate the cost and challenge of recommended missions โ€” the 2001 survey, for example, said JWST would cost $1.5 billion โ€” Blandford said the Astro2010 committee took great pains to assess technological readiness and costs risks, bringing in the Los Angeles-based Aerospace Corp. for independent analysis. Still, Blandford said, โ€œthere will still be surprises in the future.โ€