Events in the Middle East continue to grab headlines, and Russia’s invasion of Ukraine stays there as well. What gets less attention but may prove to be just as impactful to the United States’ national security is China’s recent maneuvers high above the horizon.
When Xi Jinping came to power as leader of the Communist Party of China (CCP), he had a core goal: to put China on the road to be a world-class power by 2049. First and foremost in his mind is strengthening the Party. Xi has a steadfast belief that the CCP is “the way, the truth, and the light” and essential to achieve “the Chinese Dream,” to restore China’s “rightful place in the world” at the “center of the world stage.”
China has pulled off an undertaking like this in the past. In the 1990s, China set out on a course to build the world’s largest navy, at least by number of ships, and did so by leveraging all levers of power at the CCP’s disposal. They were able to focus education, research and production all with the goal of creating not just a navy but an entire ecosystem custom-built to compete with and eventually surpass the leading navies of the world. China now dominates world production of ships, both commercial and military.
Certainly, the U.S. still builds the best and most capable warships in the world, but without the supporting ecosystem, it becomes harder to find the skilled labor and the technology to maintain that advantage and it is edging closer to being cost prohibitive to keep doing so.
What does any of that has to do with space? Everything. When Xi came to power, he assessed what CCP’s military would need to fight and win future war: long range fires, dominance in the information domain and controlling the “new strategic high ground” — space. Xi believes the U.S. is dependent on space for modern warfighting and sees this as a weak point in the America’s ability to protect its allies, partners and interests in the Indo-Pacific region. He has directed the People’s Liberation Army (PLA) to develop ways to match all of the American strengths in space and to take advantage of its weakness, exploit vulnerabilities and develop the tactics, techniques and procedures (TTPs) to defeat the American alliance in space.
And China is well-positioned to pull it off. China has what are known as State Owned Enterprises. Imagine Lockheed Martin, GM, SpaceX, and Chase Manhattan, all as parts of the U.S. government, where the President appointed and directed the leadership of the companies while dictating investment and manufacturing decisions. The CCP also has control of Chinese academia and research, both within and outside of China. The Chinese system guarantees the leader 10 years (or more) in power, with no political opposition to speak of, no oversight and nearly full control of the media. This is what allows China’s Communist leaders to pursue such long-term projects.
Xi is looking to leverage his power to drive China’s space capability and capacity to where the country’s shipbuilding is today. China has a 25- year government-funded CCP-directed space plan, including the “Guowang” (National Network) constellation with 13,000 satellites, and the “Qianfan” (Thousand Sails) constellation with 15,000 satellites. Xi’s goal is to become a world leader in space science and technology by 2049. The CCP has directed its scientists and researchers to go around the globe and partner with, work with, find, purchase, buy or, in some cases, acquire by other means all the technology they require to get it done.
Which brings us to today. Xi has directed the PLA to be ready to fight and win a war in space if and when the time comes, and the PLA is carrying out plans to make that happen. China has been conducting operations in space that are aimed at achieving that goal. They are maneuvering satellites to gain positional advantage against those of democratic nations. They are exploiting sun angles to make sure that it is the Chinese satellite that is doing the observation, and not the one being observed.
They are practicing shifts in orbital regimes which are far too aggressive to be considered routine. For a satellite, energy is life: the more you expend, the shorter the life of the satellite. Observing Chinese satellites make large and aggressive maneuvers using lots of energy leads to the assessment that they are willing to trade satellite lifespan for experience in conducting orbital maneuvers. This is also a key component of military deterrence, the demonstration of capacity, capability, and, perhaps most importantly, the will to do it.
To be clear, the PLA is exercising military maneuvers in space. Chinese satellites demonstrated coordinated, multi-satellite orbital maneuvers resembling combat tactics. This has raised alarms for governments across the globe worried about China’s aggressive development of military capabilities in space. Vice Chief of Space Operations Gen. Michael Guetlein described it as a form of “dogfighting in space.” And this is just part of the PLA’s anti-satellite program to develop jammers, weapons, robotic grappling devices, and other technologies. to fight to, from and in space.
They are conducting rendezvous and proximity operations in order to enable the execution of dynamic spacecraft operations; which in military terms means they are developing the TTPs to do these operations. And this isn’t new, in 2021 China showed that it could find, fix, track, target, pursue and grab another satellite, and then move it to a different orbital regime.
In short, they are exercising and practicing for orbital warfare. No one has ever fought a war in space — at least not since “a long, long time ago…” — but Chairman Xi is making sure that the PLA will be ready to fight the next one.
It would be a mistake for the democracies of the world to let the current turmoil in the Middle East overshadow what China is doing in space.
While the world should indeed worry about the alligator closest to the boat, we also need to not lose sight of the biggest alligator. By allowing China to develop and practice TTPs without a response, the democracies of the world risk losing the advantages they still hold.
Chairman Xi is preparing the PLA to fight and win wars in space, he is leveraging the industrial base of China to help him succeed, and he is planning well in advance. It appears he is paying heed to the ancient Sun Tsu, or was it Confucius saying: “When did Noah build the ark? Before the storm.”
Brendan Mulvaney is Director of the China Aerospace Studies Institute at air university. He was the Marine Olmsted Scholar at Fudan University in Shanghai, China. Opinions, conclusions and recommendations expressed or implied within are solely those of the author and do not necessarily represent the views of the Air University, the Department of the Air Force, the Department of Defense or any other U.S. government agency.
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This article first appeared in the July 2025 issue of SpaceNews Magazine.